Pogo

This should cheer you up.

Here it is, a few days into 2015, and my 67th birthday is fast approaching. I've become an old man. When you are young, your life stretches out seemingly without end into the the future, and your past is only yesterday. But now, a large part of my history happened before the majority of people on this earth were born, and the future is a line of falling dominoes with the end in sight. Fortunately I seem to be in pretty good health, with, so far, only the aches and pains of a much abused body. I can still read, remember, and comprehend. I can still ride my bike for hours on end, and I still work, although I'm not going to much longer. But when these things fail me, I may decide that life is not worth living. Of course, things can change for the drastic worse in a heart beat (or the lack of) as some of my friends have already found out. In any case, I'm going to cling to life and make the best of the time I have remaining, for, after all, time is the most valuable, yet dwindling commodity I own.

Life expectancy in America was, for men, 45 years in 1900. In 1948, (the year I was born) it was 65, and today it is almost 75. By the standard of the year I was born, I have already lived beyond expectation, and it is likely, but not guaranteed, that I will live beyond today's standard. I am a small part of our country's, and most of the civilized world's greatest problem. I have lived too long. Pogo the possum was born, or should I say, was first drawn in 1941, making him 74 years old. More than ever, he would surely say today, "We have met the enemy, and he is us".

I started working full time in 1973. I've never made a lot of money, but between me and my employers, around $200,000 in Social Security and Medicare has been paid into the Social Security fund. Since going on medicare, I have had one major surgery, which cost Medicare probably $50,000. If I stay perfectly healthy and die in my sleep, Social Security will be in the red with me in about 6 more years, although it is most likely that I will have exceeded my contributions in much less time. But wait, you might argue, the Federal government uses that money to pay off previous claims, and borrows the rest to fund the government, and pays the money back with interest when there is a deficit in the Social Security pay outs. Currently, the fund is about 3 trillion in the black, but the government has loaned all of that money to itself, and going forward, as claims exceed contributions, the government is required to pay this money back to meet future claims. There are only two legitimate ways to do this. One, we borrow from someone else, (maybe the Chinese or  Vesuvians), or two, we raise the money through taxation.

Of course it was not supposed to be this way. At least in theory, each generation would have paid in enough to cover the pay outs required by claimants. But, the baby boom spike, and more importantly, the longevity spike, and the increase in health care costs, and advances in health care technology have profoundly altered this dynamic.

This new dynamic has had a huge impact on every 1st world country. In most third world countries, older people are still dying at a convenient rate, with only a modest increase in longevity. But, in 1st world countries, a reverse pyramid has been created, where a declining birth rate combined with the aforementioned increase in longevity has created a situation where fewer and fewer working people are available to support those that no longer work. It's as if a destitute parent has moved into the spare bedroom, and you no longer have the money or the room to have children. Today, America's fertility rate is only about 1.93, compared to a 2.1 rate needed to maintain a stable population. And, as you go up the socioeconomic ladder, the birthrate declines even more, to around 1.6, equivalent to the Chinese one child policy. In Japan, the birth rate is down to 1.4, and by 2050 it is projected that only 51% of the population will be in the workforce age between 20 and 65. You can hardly find a 1st world country with a sustainable birthrate. On the other hand, you can hardly find a third world country without a surplus birthrate. I wonder where all these extra people will go?

I don't have a grand solution to this problem, I'm not quite willing to agree to take a "Social Security Pill" when I reach a certain age. But I'm sure that if we don't do something, our children, grandchildren, and future generations will face an increasingly dismal future.