Pascal's Wager and Global Warming

Today we got into a discussion about global warming. As usual, Howard and I were on opposite sides of the issue. There has been a lot of news lately about scientists fudging the numbers in order to make their case supporting the dangers of global warming, and Howard was quick to point out that he didn't trust the statistics and rhetoric that is out there. I personally believe that humans are having a huge impact on world climate change, and that the possibility of global warming is an important issue we should be concerned about. Here is my argument supporting concern for global warming.

In the sixteenth century, french philosopher and mathmatician, Blaise Pascal, wrote an essay titled "The Wager" in which he made a statistical argument to advocate belief in God. His argument in a nutshell is this. If you behave as if there is a God and live your life according the God's teachings, there is a good chance that you will go to heaven. If it turns out that that there is no God, you have lost nothing, in fact, you have gained by leading a moral life. However, if you act as if there is no God, you your life on earth will be dissolute at best, and you will have no chance of going to heaven. He also advocates that you attend church, and pray, on the chance that your participation may help you to obtain faith in God.

I think that the logic that Pascal applied in "The Wager" is analogous to the logic that should be applied to global warming. If mankind behaves as if global warming is a dangerous issue, and we act accordingly by reducing our use of fossil fuels, we have two possible outcomes. We may actually avert the serious consequences of global warming, but if not, we still have the positive outcome of reducing our use of fossil fuels, which improves our environment, and reduces our dependence on foreign sources of oil with all of the attendant bad side effects of that dependence.
On the other hand, if we ignore the possibility of negative effects of global warming, and they come to pass, then we have doomed ourselves to an environmental hell. Or if we continue on our present path and global warming does not happen, we have still burdened our children and future generations to a world of declining supplies, higher prices, and negative influence of the oil producing nations.